March 14, 2004

The Philippine STAR, Opinion Page

3 M -- Money, Machinery

& Media

By Babe Romualdez

Up till the 1986 presidential elections, a candidate needed guns, goons, and gold to become president.  The 3 G's were the tried-and-tested formula.  Now it takes money, machinery, and media to win.  The 3 M's form the new elixir of victory.  To make the simplest analogy, money is the fuel and the machinery is the engine that will bear the the winner passed the finish line.

Candidates and strategists who think they can win through money and machinery alone might be deluding themselves.  They only have to look at the debacles of Mitra and de Venecia in 1992 and 1998, respectively.  The unreliability of congressional party allies to court, deliver, and protect votes have rendered political parties irrelevant.  Furthermore, a party is now a liability because it only increases the costs of a campaign.

Media is now king.  Political operators and strategists know that TV has replaced radio as the mass medium.  In the 1970's, the nation's TV penetration was below 30 percent.  Now, 90 percent of Filipino households have television sets.  The youth who are most influenced by TV comprise most of the market vote, the voters who cannot be commanded by political voters to vote as they are told.  The market vote is estimated to be 80 percent of the whole electorate.

Strategists keep in mind that media expenses take up a third of total campaign expenses.  A candidate can spend P1-B on media alone in advertising and positive tri-media coverage.  Before the Age of Media, half of the campaign budget was poured on election day expenses.  Let's look at how the candidates are faring in terms of the 3 M's.

For the first time since Ferdinand Marcos'  1986 run, an incumbent president is running for re-election.  Her opponents will concede that GMA has an edge not enjoyed by previous candidates in the post-Marcos elections.  Sources tell me that she has a minimum of P8-B in her war chest.  There is no clear indication where the funds are coming from,. whether private or government.  But it is there.  Let's leave it at that.  Added to these resources are: The Fokker 28 presidential aircraft that costs $3-M to refurbish, the helicopters, the bullet-proof cars and SUVs, soldiers, police, and the bureaucracy.  This is the built-in advantage called the equity of the incumbent.  Thus, the reigning queen's money and machinery can hardly be matched by her challengers.

However, GMA 's media efforts have difficulties, to say the least, in capturing the popular imagination as Estrada had.  Despite this, political operator Ronnie Puno claims that GMA can get 10 to 12 million votes because of superior resources and superior organization that the other candidates will just be struggling throughout the elections.  People following her campaign told me that her energy level and her determination are boundless.  My mother, who knew former First Lady Eva Macapagal, told me that GMA has the same characteristics as her mother.  Combining all of these, no one can dispute that she is the most formidable candidate.

Looking at FPJ, his momentum was derailed by the Supreme Court disqualification case.  Consequently, the flow of money stopped.  And there are many candidates complaining that there aren't enough funds going around because many businessmen are holding back.  Worse, they are parking their money outside the country.  There were also cases of people caught by surprise over his statements on serious matters like globalization and debt restructuring.  But what is really hurting FPJ is the lack of organization with different factions within his group.

Some observers are saying that he is beginning to lose steam, but Loren told me the other night that his provincial sorties were just unbelievable and phenomenal.  They were mobbed everywhere.  But, unfortunately, popularity alone cannot take him to Malacañang.  At the end of the day, it is the machinery and the organization that would bring those voters on election day.  Unlike Erap who had the distinct advantages of popularity, charisma, money raining on him, and the machinery of the combined Partido ng Masang Pilipino (PMP), Danding Cojuangco's Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC), and Ed Angara's Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP), FPJ still has to step up.  There has to be every effort for FPJ to organize his group.

More important, he has to reach out to Ping Lacson, who right now has the best program and the organizational discipline.  Lacson has the funds, a terrific organization, and a well-prepared platform of government.  With an FPJ-Lacson combination, they will certainly have a better-than-even chance in neutralizing GMA's 3 M's.

Raul Roco has neither a bulging war chest nor a real organization.  He, however, has a strong voter base in the youth.  Two-thirds of the electorate is below 45.  Demography favors Roco.  He can improve his chances and his ratings, however, if he combines with Bro. Eddie Villanueva who is now gaining momentum.  There are many people, particularly the A, B, & C classes, who are taking a second look at Bro. Eddie.  They see him as the better alternative to the leading candidates.  Bro. Eddie, they say, has the money, the machinery, and the media resources that Roco lacks.

A three-cornered fight may be ideal.  But in reality, this is what this country needs: an evenly-matched fight that will set the stage for a majority president to emerge.  This country is so divided that even foreign diplomats have difficulty defining the issus.  The reality is that after May 10, the new president, whoever it is, will need a strong mandate to resolve the enormous problems confronting this country.

The foreign debt now runs at $56-B while the budget deficit has risen to $3.57-B.  There, too, are the power shortages that will come earlier then expected.  And the runaway population growth combined with the poverty that is just absolutely overwhelming.

When people ask me who will you vote for, my answer is simple: My personal choice is really irrelevant.  What is important is that we have credible elections and that whoever wins must have the full support of every single Filipino, here and abroad.  Our survival will depend on that support.  Otherwise, we might as well hand over the presidency to Eddie Gil in the hope that he really has the millions to pay off our mounting debts.

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Email: babeseyeview@hotmail.com

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